Monday, April 21, 2008

Epidural Does It Hurt

And if the league was a bluff?

centocinquantaseiesima investigation viewed on the Northern League vote, perhaps because of fatigue, perhaps out of boredom, perhaps because it breaks the balls worse than the salon - and outside living room - the furniture (not the Milanese can call for details) , the question arises: what if the assertion of the Northern League was a bluff. A hypothesis of the school course. But we analyze data from a different point of view. The 2006 elections showed that Italy is a country of the center: a government even more useless than harmful like Berlusconi 2001-2006 allowed the super-center expanded dramatically to win elections. Then he said: "The country is split in two." These elections, however, told us one thing clear, namely that the center-left forces have a hard Zuccolo by 35% while the center has a market share of loyal voters that close to 50%. The rest is fluid vote. I'm not afraid to use the term protest vote. In other words, a non-ideological vote. That part of the electorate, accounting for 15-20% electorate, is frightened by the future and even some 'very angry. In 2006 he gave confidence to even PRC, Verdi & C. Today had no problems to seek other avenues such as the League (which also votes on the other hand gnawing at PDL).
school Assuming the conclusion is not very comforting for those looking for a mature democracy and bipolar: 1) you do not win the center, but by aggregating the upset, 2) the more you try to combine forces in more homogeneous superpartiti feeding the centrifugal force dwarfs (percentage of course) angry that they can explode in an election in the next to succumb. It 'has happened before to the League from the pomp that has fallen below 4% before recovering. E' successo - tanto per fare un altro esempio - ai radicali con le elezioni europee dove la Lista Bonino prese, se non ricordo male, qualcosa come l'8%.
Ovviamente è un'ipotesi di scuola. Poi c'è la questione del nord, la sicurezza, la sindrome da accerchiamento degli immigrati e tutte le cose che avete già letto.

0 comments:

Post a Comment